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Abstract Extreme sea levels (ESLs) due to typhoon-induced storm surge threaten the societal security of densely populated coastal China. Uncertainty in extreme value analysis (EVA) for ESL estimation has large implications for coastal communities’ adaptation to natural hazards. Here we evaluate uncertainties in ESL estimation and relevant driving factors based on hourly observations from 13 tide gauge stations and a complementary dataset derived from a hydrodynamic model. Results indicate significant uncertainties in ESL estimations stemming from using different EVA methods, which then propagate to the inundation assessment. Amplification factors due to sea-level rise (SLR) are highly sensitive to local relative SLR and the shape of the exceedance probability curve, which in turn depends on the selected EVA method. The hydrodynamic model hindcast indicates that high ESLs mainly occurred in eastern coastal China due to typhoon-induced storm surge. Larger uncertainties in the modelled ESLs are found for the coasts of the Yangtze River Delta, and particularly in the river mouth region. Future research and adaptation planning should prioritize these regions given expected future rising sea level, compound flood events, and human-induced factors (e.g. subsidence). This study provides theoretical and practical references for adaptation to ESL-related hazards along coastal China, with implications for coastal regions worldwide. 

Using long‐term moorings data together with wind and sea ice measurements, we document the characteristics and variations of upwelling in Barrow Canyon and investigate the upwelled Atlantic Water (AW) on the Chukchi Sea shelf and how it impacts the ice cover. Driven by strong northeasterly winds, upwelling occurs more often in the cold months, and the occurrence tends to increase interannually since 2001. Over the 12‐year mooring record at the mouth of Barrow Canyon, roughly 10% of the upwelling events can drive AW onto the Chukchi Sea shelf. Both AW and non‐AW upwelling events have more occurrence and stronger strength in the cold months, but do not present a significant interannual trend. These variations are associated with the northeasterly winds. Comparing to the non‐AW upwelling, the AW upwelling is generally characterized by more vertical displacement of the AW layer at the mouth of Barrow Canyon, and stronger up‐canyon volume and heat transport. In the ice‐covered period, these two types of upwelling have different consequences for forming polynyas on the shelf. Under similar wind forcing, the ice reduction appears confined in the coastal region in the non‐AW upwelling events, while during AW upwelling events, the sea ice declines dramatically in the shelf interior with 15% more ice loss. It elucidates that the heat carried by the upwelled AW plays a considerable role in modulating the ice cover in the shelf interior.

 

The sensitivity of the Arctic precipitation phases (solid and liquid) to the forcings from greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols over 2016–2080 was investigated by using the Community Earth System Model Version 1. Results show that the warming caused by the two forcings results in an increasing trend in total precipitation and a solid‐to‐liquid precipitation transition in the Arctic. Under RCP8.5 scenario, the increased rate of Arctic mean precipitation with global warming forced by aerosol reduction (7.7%/°C) is twice greater than that by increased GHG emission (3.5%/°C). The sensitivity of rainfall to precipitation ratio (RPR) to various forcings is much higher than that of total precipitation in the Arctic. The increased rate of RPR due to global aerosol forcing (8.4%/°C) is approximately 3 times that due to GHG forcing (2.9%/°C) in the Arctic, the differences even larger over Greenland and the eastern Arctic Ocean, resulting in more rainfall in these areas.